Export Momentum Met Mounting Resistance in February
February 2025 marked a critical inflection point in global steel trade, particularly for Chinese exports. While China’s steel export volumes remained elevated following a record-setting 2024, the global regulatory environment began to shift decisively against it.
According to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights, there were 29 antidumping investigations against Chinese steel filed between early 2024 and February 2025, nearly double the 15 cases recorded over the prior three years. Trade actions initiated by countries including Vietnam, the EU, South Korea, Colombia, and Malaysia affected around 5 million metric tons (mt) of annual exports.
Vietnam alone had imported over 9 million mt of Chinese HRC in 2024, a 37% year-on-year increase. However, new duties targeting narrower coil widths were set to restrict approximately 3 million mt/year going forward. Another 19 cases, affecting an estimated 9.44 million mt/year of exports, were still under investigation by month-end.
The export momentum was driven largely by China’s sluggish domestic demand. Its apparent steel consumption in 2024 fell to a six-year low of 892.87 million mt, down 4.8% year-on-year and over 10% below 2021 levels. As a result, exports had surged, but so too had trade tensions, a dynamic that intensified during February.
Capacity Expansions Continued Despite Profit Pressures
Even as trade friction escalated, China’s domestic steel industry showed few signs of slowing production. In 2024, seven new hot strip mills with a combined capacity of 23 million mt/year were brought online. By February 2025, plans were underway to add another 39 million mt/year across 17 new facilities.
Despite this expansion, financial returns for mills remained weak. According to the China Iron & Steel Association (CISA), its member companies saw profits fall 50.3% in 2024 to just 42.9 billion yuan ($5.92 billion).
Meanwhile, steel output began to rebound after the Lunar New Year break. CISA data from early February showed daily crude steel production averaging 2.71 million mt between February 1–10, a modest 1.1% increase from late January. However, this remained below year-ago levels.
Finished steel inventories rose 12.9% from January 31 to 25.61 million mt by February 10, reflecting the seasonal lull. HRC inventories reached 2.19 million mt, a 17.7% increase over the month and 9% higher year-on-year. Rebar production remained under pressure due to poor construction activity, with February output estimated to be 15% below 2024 levels.
North America Responded to Tariff Threats
In North America, trade tensions escalated dramatically. On February 24, Canadian steel producer MPG Canada announced it had laid off 140 workers and paused several projects in anticipation of U.S. tariffs. President Donald Trump had pledged a 25% duty on all Canadian steel imports beginning March 4, alongside a broader global tariff taking effect March 12.
Though not yet enacted, the threat alone caused a sharp shift in market behavior. MPG Canada, which includes Ivaco Rolling Mills, Sivaco, and Infasco, reported declining order volumes and cost-cutting initiatives as customers retreated. The U.S., for its part, imported over 5.3 million mt of Canadian iron and steel in 2024.
Steel prices in the U.S. rose accordingly. The Platts TSI HRC EXW Indiana index reached $855/st by February 21, up $50 from the previous week. Cold-rolled and hot-dipped galvanised prices also surged, climbing $100/st during the same period.
Europe Unveiled Strategic Industry Support
February also saw key policy developments in the European Union. On February 25, the European Commission launched a strategic dialogue on steel, aimed at safeguarding industrial competitiveness and addressing sustainability challenges. A dedicated action plan was promised for spring 2025.
The Commission underscored the sector’s €80 billion contribution to EU GDP and its pivotal role in decarbonisation efforts. President Ursula von der Leyen stated that the initiative would address energy costs, raw material access, and unfair global competition. EVP Stephane Sejourne, tasked with leading the plan, emphasised support for clean and locally produced steel.
German producer Salzgitter, for example, moved forward with its green hydrogen strategy, beginning construction on a 100 MW electrolyser that will support carbon-reduced steel production from 2026.
Market Data Showed Diverging Regional Trends
Steel prices across global markets reflected the shifting supply-demand landscape and rising geopolitical risk.
Key price movements reported as of February 25:
China:
– HRC FOB: $462/mt (down $2 WoW)
– Rebar FOB: $467/mt (up $2 WoW)
Black Sea:
– Billet FOB: $440/mt (up $2.50 WoW)
U.S.:
– HRC EXW Indiana: $855/st (up $35 WoW)
– CRC EXW Indiana: $1,050/st (up $60 WoW)
Iron Ore:
– IODEX 62% fines CFR China: $106.85/dmt (down $0.75 WoW)
February’s price volatility was underpinned by varying regional fundamentals. China’s HRC prices softened marginally amid rising inventories and output. U.S. prices climbed sharply due to tariff speculation. Europe’s flat steel pricing remained stable but trended upward in anticipation of safeguard reviews.